Amnesia Bias

Among the six cognitive biases that contribute to "preparedness avoidance" is Amnesia Bias. No secret what this means; our memories for pain are short lived. We certainly remember difficult events, it's the intensity of the pain and fear that we forget. We see this frequently: for example the habit of rebuilding houses in flood zones and taller and taller skyscrapers where earthquakes have occurred and are predicted to occur again. A city where this is obvious is San Francisco.

The New York Times created a brilliant infographic of San Francisco's building frenzy in an article called San Francisco's Big Seismic Gamble. The article was published in April 2018. One could be confident that engineering and technology would ensure new buildings could withstand say a 1,000 year earthquake - it's just that the 645 foot Millennium Tower in downtown San Francisco - which has sunk 16 inches and is tilting - has a way of undermining that confidence.